Historically High Scoring Expected in Super Bowl

The highest scoring season in NFL history will come to a fitting conclusion with a matchup that features one of the highest over/unders in Super Bowl history, according to TheLines, which tracks odds in the U.S. regulated sports betting market.

In what will assuredly be the most legally wagered-on Super Bowl in history, the Kansas City Chiefs were 3-point favorites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as of Monday morning, according to a consensus of the nation’s largest legal online sportsbooks — including DraftKings, FanDuel, PointsBet, PlaySugarHouse, BetMGM, Unibet, and William Hill. But after opening on Sunday night at 57.5 points, total points for the matchup have been bet down to 56. But with nearly two weeks to go before kickoff, bettors could still push the point total past the record of 57 points.

Twice in Super Bowl history, in 2017 and in 2010, has the over/under total closed at 57 points. In 2017, the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons combined to score 62. In 2010, the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts combined for 48 points. In all, oddsmakers have set the Super Bowl point total at 50 points or more 11 times. Of those 11, the under was the winning bet in eight of them.

“It’s tempting to look at a quarterback matchup of Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady and assume that we will see a lot of points, but history suggests that historically high point totals are tough to reach regardless of how good the offenses have been,” said Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines.com. “Early wagering seems to be acknowledging that fact. But with so much Super Bowl experience at quarterback, and following a record-setting regular season for offense, bettors could very well push that point total back to an all-time high by kickoff.”

Of course, proposition bets are typically the most anticipated. DraftKings has already posted odds on whether an offensive or defensive lineman will score a touchdown, and FanDuel is offering multiple coin toss-related bets.

But many of the most exotic proposition bets — such as the color of the Gatorade that is dumped on the winning team’s coach — have yet to be posted at most sportsbooks.

“Prop bets have long been a part of the Super Bowl’s betting landscape, but online and mobile sportsbooks have significantly boosted the popularity of in-game and prop betting,” Collson said. “Online and mobile betting have allowed for a creativity that simply wasn’t possible when betting was limited to legal retail sportsbooks.”

The consensus point spread for Super Bowl LV, as of Monday, Jan. 25:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3); over/under 56
Money line: Kansas City (-165), Tampa Bay (+140)

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