The 2022 Wildfire Outlook Appears Bleak

Typically, the Center for Disaster Philanthropy (CDP) starts its North American wildfires profile in the summer or even fall. However, as climate change increasingly has a more significant impact, the concept of disaster seasons has been disappearing. Two significant winter fires in Colorado and California, along with dozens of smaller fires, have led to statistics that far exceed what typically happens at this point in the year. As such, the CDP says their wildfire profile will run by calendar year moving forward.

This direction is supported by experts such as Cecile Juliette, public information officer of California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, said in an interview with ABC News, “We are towards the end of January. 10-15 years ago we use to call it the California fire season where we might get fires say in July that would last through maybe September or October. So, it was just a few months. Now our fires are extending all the way through December and then into January. So it’s not really accurate to call it a fire season.

CAL FIRE is trying to get away from calling it a fire season because that doesn’t make sense anymore. It’s really now more of a fire year.” According to their website, “California continues to experience longer wildfire seasons as a direct result of Climate Change. Extended dryness originating from January is expected to continue into the Spring with little perception leaving most of the state in moderate to extreme drought conditions prior to Summer. These continued dry conditions with above normal temperatures through Spring will leave fuel moisture levels lower than normal increasing the potential for wildland fire activity.”

As 2022 began, fires continued to burn or sprung up in several states. As the year progresses, and the drought pushes further east, more wildfires are popping up in southern and plains states. The new year started with a fire over New Year’s Eve in Colorado and there have also been fires in other states including: Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Texas.

Currently, there are three major fires in Arizona (Tunnel Fire), New Mexico (Calf Canyon Fire) and Colorado (started by a Lithium Battery in a Drone crash) fueled by extremely dry and windy conditions that have destroyed dozens of homes, national monuments, and are forcing evacuations. “We cannot overstate how dire & dangerous the weather situation is today!!” the NWS Albuquerque office tweeted last Friday. “Very strong winds, exceptionally low humidity, above normal temperatures & unstable conditions are a recipe for extreme fire weather.” NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center said an “outbreak of dangerous fire-weather conditions expected” in parts of New Mexico and eastern Colorado.

A combination of weather conditions are ramping up the fire danger. “You’ve got two factors when it comes to fire weather that determine how bad it’s going to be,” weather.com meteorologist Ari Sarsalari said Friday morning. “Number 1, how dry it will be outside? Extremely dry. The dew points are going to be really, really low. Not much moisture in the air at all. No. 2 the wind and that’s what can really make it bad. It can really make it hard to get these fires under control once they start.”

Ongoing drought conditions and warm temperatures are also exacerbating the situation. Nearly all of the western U.S. is in some form of drought, and many of the areas experiencing the worst fire weather are in severe or extreme drought conditions. “This is very early to have this kind of fire behavior,” Rocky Opliger, incident commander for a wildfire burning near Prescott, Arizona, told The Associated Press. “Right now we are on the whims of weather.” Opliger said the conditions are some of the worst he’s seen in nearly five decades of fighting wildfires.

Wildfire activity in the U.S. is well above average so far this year, according to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). More than 20,000 fires have scorched about 1,300 square miles of land since Jan. 1. That compares to a 10-year average of 13,389 fires and about 980 square miles burned.

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